Example: Straw Man Fallacy. 5) The Hasty Generalization Fallacy. This means that the jumping-to-conclusions bias causes people to jump to conclusions when it comes to their internal reasoning process, which in turn causes them to use the jumping-to-conclusions fallacy in their arguments. How simple things can sometimes turn out HORRIBLY, horribly wrong! What Is a Hasty Generalization? Jumping to Conclusions and All or Nothing Thinking are two common cognitive distortions. A fallacy is when someone reaches a faulty conclusion. Fallacy: Video: Past climate change tells us climate is sensitive to the warming effect of CO2. Red herring: how quickly a CO2 molecule moves around the climate system is different While jumping to conclusions is viewed as a cognitive phenomenon, and is unintentional, it can also be a logical fallacy. Jumping to Conclusions When we draw a conclusion without taking the trouble to acquire all the relevant evidence, we commit the fallacy of jumping to conclusions, provided there was sufficient time to assess that extra evidence, and that the effort to get the evidence isn't prohibitive. When a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. Jumping to conclusions: volcanoes do produce CO2, but over recent centuries the amounts are too small to account for the observed changes in the air. JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS. A logical fallacy is not necessarily a Bayesian fallacy, so given a particular circumstance, jumping to the conclusion will be more likely than not, and get baked into human thinking as a heuristic. A hasty generalization is one example of a logical fallacy, wherein someone reaches a conclusion that is not justified logically by objective or sufficient evidence. MYTH FALLACY Over-simplification: considers only natural CO2 emissions and ignores natural CO2 sinks. This fallacy occurs when someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence. JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS: When jumping to conclusion, an author draws a quick conclusion without fairly considering relevant (and easily available) evidence. Authority over Evidence. This usually happens when there is insufficient information or a failure in reasoning. A fallacy of jumping to conclusions in which the conclusion is a generalization. Look at the cartoon below and decide which fallacy has been committed: Jumping to conclusions: Argumentum ad populum: Non sequitur: False dilemma: Straw man: Argumentum ad hominem: False analogy: Slippery slope: False cause: Appeal to tradition: Appeal to … In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some -- but not enough -- evidence to back it up, and overlook potential counterarguments. 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